The Palm Pre – Does it matter?

I managed to get a 5 minute play with the Pre at MWC – I approached a skeptic, and emerged a fan!  It is significantly different from anything on the market today.

Where the iPhone is “cool”, the Pre is “fun”.  It is smaller, lighter, and has a non-intuitive touch interface that (with practice) will have you swishing windows around Minority Report style.  The touch sensitive areas extend beyond the screen, so you have a zone at the bottom for all kinds of complex gestures.  It’s a shame Apple has the patent.

Application developers are able to build web2.0 style in javascript and DHTML, making for a much larger developer community.  There is a tiny, but noticeable lag as you open and close windows, I was assured that this will be resolved by launch.  The slide out qwerty keyboard seems just the job, compromising between Android (clunky) and iPhone (soft).

It’s fascinating that a manufacturer is prepared to buck the trend, develop their own O/S (linux based), and not open source it.  I don’t quite see what Palm has to gain from this approach, although I expect that it will only be a matter of time before the cost of being the sole developer will force them into a more open model.

Don’t underestimate how different the user interface is – unless it is sold properly, there will be plenty of people taking it back, saying “I just don’t get how to work it”.

My Prediction for 2H 2009 – the network(s) who do the exclusivity deal for launching the Pre will be the top performing in their market.  This is why launching a “game changing” phone matters – a lot.

The Silver Lining in the Credit Crisis

So what good will come from the Credit Crisis?  Well, here is one thing;

More bright kids will enter careers developing software and not be lost to the banking and finance industry.

2 things I recall from when I was a kid (the early 80′s); programming my ZX-81, and Thatcher/Reaganomics.  There was a moment, when most teenagers in the UK could program, at least in BASIC.  Then everyone went to university, and many potential software developers ended up in the City, lured by the big salary, bonus and status.   The creativity and skill which would have made them great software developers was put to use creating and trading exoctic financial instruments.

Now it has become clear that making things is what creates money and fiddling figures simply does not.  I grieve for the lost generation, but am thankful that this year’s graduates will not end up chasing snake oil. 

Q:  How do we get out of  the credit crisis?

A: Be creative with code.

Open Source and the Mobile Device Value Chain

First LiMo, then Andriod, and now Symbian; the mobile industry is adopting Open Source at a dramatic rate. I believe that most mobile phones will run an Open Source software stack within 3 years. How will this affect the Mobile Device Value Chain? What threats are posed to the incumbents? What opportunities arise for new entrants? Here are some thoughts.

A simplified view of the current Value Chain looks like this: Money flows from the End User through Network Operators, and other channels to OEMs who purchase Operating System software. Everybody in this value chain would like to impact the software build on the device, but it is increasingly difficult the further from the developers you get. Even Tier 1 operators, with their massive financial muscle only have a limited impact, at great cost (eg VodafoneLive). The situation is far from ideal, and suppresses the rate of change and innovation in our industry.

Unsurprisingly, Google, Nokia etc have spotted the problem, and are doing something about it. The impact will be huge.

Although the advent of OpenSource mobile operating systems gives anyone the ability to change the software shipped on our phones, the world only changes if they actually want to; do they see value in doing so. The answer is absolutely yes! Consider Brands (eg Coca Cola, MTV), Banks, Government Organisations, each with their own ability to get phones with software targeted to their user demographic. However, not everyone has the skills to make a distribution, which means a new space opens up for packagers who will take  requirements from the channel distributors and create tailored builds.  The value chain now looks more like this: Mobile Operating System software moves from being a link in the value chain to being a supporting function to all elements in the chain.

So who will occupy this new space?  Clearly incumbents will be keen to dominate, so expect Google, Nokia/Symbian, OpenMoko, and LiMo to be major players.  Others also have an opportunity, distribution companies such as Brightpoint are already well positioned, as are traditional desktop/server Linux packagers such as RedHat, Debian and Ubuntu.  This is a big space, so there is plenty of room for horizontal and vertical segmentation.

The loosers? Almost certainly the Tier 1 device manufacturers (consider Nokia a Tier 0). These guys will struggle as Tier 2 manufacturers create O/S agnostic, commoditised hardware for consumption by the packagers and channels.

Exciting times.

Tim Joyce

Welcome

I thought that it would be interesting to blog my insights on the Mobile Phone Industry, especially looking at device and service diversity.  My background is in developing solutions for the configuration and management of mobile devices, but I now let my thoughts wander more widely across the mobile device ecosystem.  I work as VP Research and Innovation in WDSGlobal, where I encourage everyone to think creatively about the future and how we can shape it.